RESOURCE PLANNING
Is Big Dam a Planning Paradox?
Joyeeta Bhattacharjee Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi 1/20/2011 1:18:39 AM
As India strives to become a global economic powerhouse there is growing pressure on the country to mobilize its resources to complement the growth of economy. Flawless energy supply is an important stimulus for attaining this goal. Hydroelectricity has been identified to be major source of India’s energy needs. The economically exploitable power potential in India through medium and large projects has been estimated to around 84,044 MW of at 60 percent load factor— that is about 148,000 MW capacity of which Arunachal Pradesh alone has a potential of producing 50,000 MW. Hence, the state wants to exploit its hydropower potential and planning to construct nearly 100 big and small dams. Dam building in Arunachal Pradesh also got encouragement due to launching of 50,000 Megawatt (MW) Hydroelectric Initiative by Prime Minister of India in 2003 to speed up development of the hydropower in the country. The initiative proposed to develop an installed capacity of about 50,000 MW through 162 projects in 16 states by 2017. Out of these 162 schemes 42 are in Arunachal Pradesh with 27,293 MW capacity. Hence, Arunachal Pradesh has emerged as a major centre of dam building in India. Like other dam projects, dams in Arunachal Pradesh are not free of controversies. The major controversies are: the adverse ecological impact, displacement and migration challenges, and rights of the indigenous people. Besides, conflict between the upper riparian Arunachal Pradesh and lower riparian Assam over the right of the river since many of the rivers on those dams are constructed ultimately drains down to the river Brahmaputra. The issue of interstate conflict over water also attracts importance as apprehensions prevail about provocation of ethnic conflicts. Fear also aggravates due to the existence of fragile relationship among various ethnic groups of the region. Looking at the scenario the questions those arise are: — is it worth building dams? Will dams really bring development? At this backdrop the case of Arunachal Pradesh is presented to understand the major challenges and issues a state might encounter while constructing a dam and the precautions it should take while planning for dams which will contribute in overcoming controversies and saving both time and money. Controversies have been factors for delaying dam project which increases the project cost.
Introducing Arunachal Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh the Himalayan state in the North Eastern (NE) India attained statehood in February 20, 1987. The state has a population of 1,091,117 with a density of 13 persons per square kilometer is lowest in the country. It covers a territory of 83,734 square kilometer making it the biggest state in terms of geography in the NE region. The state has a long international border with Bhutan in the West (160 km), China in the North and Northeast (1,080km) and Myanmar in the east (440 km). The state receives a 300 centimeters of yearly rainfall and has 51,480 of forest cover. The road communication is very poor in the state. Only 15,356 kilometers for 100 square kilometer compared with 47.27 kilometers at the national level. There are 16 districts, 57 Community Development Blocks 3649 villages. Most of the villages become inaccessible in rainy and winter sessions. 868,429 are rural population and 222,668 urban population, 63.65 schedule tribes, literacy rate 54.7 percent (2001 Census Report), male population 64.07 percent, female 44.24 percent. Arunachal Pradesh registered a high population growth of 36.8 percent in (1981-91) higher than the all India growth rate of 23.6 percent.
The state's economy is predominantly agricultural. The shifting cultivation known as Jhuming, occupies the central position in Arunachal Pradesh in the field of Agriculture. However, traditional practice of Jhum cultivation is slowly diminishing. The state is also rich in forest resources and forest products are the next most significant sector of economy. Arunachal is also ideal for horticulture and fruit orchards. The state is also rich in minerals like dolomite, graphitie, coal, YelloOrche, Marble. The state is trailing behind in industrial development. But with the socio-economic development there have been rise in the expectation of the people and the youth today are reluctant to take up the traditional ways of employments. This impinges upon the government the need to look for alternative ways of employment. Hence the state is in desperate need for enhancing its industrial growth.
The topography of the state of Arunachal Pradesh shows a distinct pattern. Nestled in the high mountains the state is characterized by a hilly terrain interspersed with rivers and valleys. There are 10 major river basins in the state including: 1) Tawang 2) Kameng 3) Dikring 4) Subanriri 5) Siang 6) Sisiri 7) Dibang 8) Lohit 9) Torap-Dehing and 10) Tissa. Besides there are numerous rivers originating from these basins and ultimately drain to Brahmaputra. These river basins have identified to be ideal for generation of hydropower. The state wants to utilize its potential and transform hydropower production as its flagship industry to lift the economy of the state.
Arunachal Pradesh has drafted a Hydropower policy with the ambitious plan of constructing nearly 100 dams to exploit its hydropower potential. Accordingly the state has signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with both public and private companies. The major public sector companies are like - NEEPCOLtb, NHPC, NTPC(Hydro)Ltd and private companies include- GMR Energy and Jayprakash Associates. The state plans to produce 30,00 MW of hydropower in 10 years. The major projects those are currently been executed in the state are Ranganadi Project, the Subansiri project and the Tohal Project. The state is not only planning to sell the power domestically but also eyeing markets in neighbouring countries. The state feels that it would be floating in “hydro dollars” as popularly said that the Arab Countries are floating in “Petro Dollars”. It is estimated that the state would be able to earn Rs. 70 billion as revenue by generating power once these projects are completed. Despite these opportunities, there are certain concerns about the possible implication of these projects those demands immediate attention.
Environmental Concerns
Impact of these projects on the environment has been the centre of the debate. Intensity of concern also increases as the state falls into the seismic zone V making it one of the most earthquakes prone. The environmentalist's anxiety also aggravates as the mountains in Arunachal Pradesh are regarded to be very young and prone to landslide. Such alarmist reaction also arises since the state is located near to the epicentre of the infamous 1950 earthquake, one of the most devastating earthquakes of the century the country witnessed. The 1950 quake was so devastating that thousand of people were killed and tremors were felt at six in the Richter scale in Kolkata some thousand of kilometers away from the epicentre. At the 1950 quake a large landslide blocked the Subansiri River and a natural dam was created. This natural dam broke after eight days, creating a wave of seven meters high which inundated villages killing hundreds of people. Experiences of the passed have made people of the state fearful and they feel that there would be a catastrophic impact at the occurrence of earthquake once these dams are completed. The question they are raising today — what worth the dam will bring if there will be none to enjoy its benefits. An obvious answer to this would be to initiate a study to look into the possible impact of earth quake on dams on the region. The hydroelectric power policy of the Arunachal Pradesh though says that the projects will be developed considering fragile geological condition of the state and big dams will be developed in a most environment, eco-friendly and judicious manner. However, the reality depicts a different picture many of these projects have been initiated without acquiring adequate environmental clearance. Media reports claimed the on January 31, 2008 Manmohan Singh laid the foundation stone for the 3000 MW Dibang multi purpose project which did not secure the mandatory environmental clearances.
Social Concerns
Concerns have been raised over the societal implication of these dams. The society in Arunachal Pradesh is agrarian, rivers and forest playing a dominant role in lives of common people. Hence, a fear of losing identity, customs and tradition is prevailing among the mind of the people. Construction of dams has led to loss of large number of agricultural land and forest cover which had been major resource base for the agriculture and fishing threatening the sustainability of the people. Some of the reports claim that flow of water on the rivers on those the dams already have been constructed reduced drastically adversely affecting production of fish. Cultivation is also facing problem as many of the cultivable land either have submerged or the channels made for irrigation purpose have dried up. Generally relocation is the obvious solution for rehabilitation of the affected people but this is not free of complexities. The rehabilitation or compensation for the loss of resources is complicated because ownership of land, forest to rivers is attached to specific clans or tribes. Fears are expressed that any attempt to resettle one tribe or clan into another may lead to tensions between tribes. Besides, the issue of cultural marginalization is slowly emerging in the psyche of the people. As construction of dams would require huge skilled and unskilled workers and the people of the state would not be able to fill the demand, large number of people would be coming to the state from outside; local fear that the influx of people from outside would threaten their culture and identity.
Is the fear illogical? The common picture in many of the project sites have been high walls barricaded with barbed wire making it out of bound for the locals and they need permission to enter on the land which once they claim to be their own. Frustration also deepens as on many occasions they fail to enjoy the benefits of the facilities like — schools and health centre, which are available inside these well guarded complexes and accessible only to the workers. Such situation creates a feeling of deprivation and alienation which gets expression in the form of opposition to the dams. In fact today many are raising question that if locals are not bearing the fruit of development then it is for whom?
Concern of the Lower Riparian State
This opened the debate about the ownership of the river. Is it the upper riparian who will have the first stake on the water of the river? Assam being a lower riparian has raised concerns over Arunachal Pradesh constructing dams on the river Brahmaputra. There are apprehensions that these dams will adversely affect the flow of river putting at risk the water security of the state. The people of Assam have taken to street to voice their protest against the dams. The arguments forwarded against these dams are: - Brahmaputra is the major source of water for Assam. The river is inherently connected with the socio-economic life of the state. People of the state are not only dependent on the river for their daily survival but also it provides livelihood to the states population like fishing. Hence, any disturbance in the natural flow threatens the sustainability of the large population those who have been living in the state for generations. Again, there are speculations that a decrease in the water flow might lead to migration from the state to other part of the country which would have deep socio-economic implications. Further the environmentalists also claim that since Arunachal Pradesh being situated in a seismic region earthquake of high magnitude would have be disastrous for the state causing flash floods which might lead to huge loss of lives. So, this is also a question of survival.
Contrary to Assam’s claim Arunachal Pradesh has claimed that those dams would end perennial flood problem for the state. The Chief Minister of Assam said that these dams would not solve the problem of flood but would bring evil than good. 
The situation is grim as the present dispute contributing in instigating ethnic tension in the bordering areas of both the state. This spontaneously precedes the demand for a study to assess the impact of these dams in lower riparian states like Assam. An impact assessment is also necessary because Brahmaputra is an international river and not only Assam but Bangladesh also get affected as it is also a lower riparian, which might create tension between both the countries.
Another aspect to this debate is the role of centre. Defending itself Arunachal Pradesh claimed that as the mega dams were cleared by central electricity Authority and, hence, the state had limited role to play. The Assam is also demanding centre’s intervention to resolve this situation. But the centre restraint itself from intervening since Indian Constitution regards water as a state subject empowering states to legislate law with respect to water supplies, irrigation and canals, drainage and embankments, water storage and water power.
What the way ahead? Establishment of dispute resolution tribunal is the option. According to the Interstate dispute Act of 1956, a state government that may request the central government to refer the dispute to a tribunal consisting of a chairman and two members nominated by the Chief Justice of India from among judges of the Supreme Court. These tribunals investigate the matter and make a final and binding resolution of the conflict. In India, 85% of the rivers are interstate and several dispute have arisen over the sharing of river water. Unfortunately tribunals constituted to resolve inter state water disputes proved to be a time consuming process, often requiring many years to achieve real conflict resolution. Hence, this precipitates demand for finding alternatives in tackling such a scenario and the centre should take proactive step in this regard.
Way Forward
Development desired by all. To pave way for smooth development it is necessary to frame policies that would take all onboard and their issue and concerns. In this regard the most important step would be to protect the environment. A run of the river project is ideal as it will be helpful to convince the locals that culture would be respected. An assessment of the impact on lower riparian state should be carried out as it will help to clear doubts of the lower riparian states. Meanwhile, the locals should be provided the opportunity to enjoy fruits of the development that would be coming following establishment of power projects, like — school could be run by these power projects for the neighbouring areas, free power and even sharing of revenues earned from these projects with affected villages could be considered. Public Hearing should be made without fail so that everyone could express their views. Most important in this regard is to build bridges with the locals and this requires engagement with tribal leaders and local people. Again, proper arrangement of compensation should be made in line with the local tradition and norms.
Looking at the vest opposition to dams there is urgent need to encourage participation of multi-stake holders. A dialogue need to be developed among stake-holders like environmentalist, tribal leaders, civil society, representative of lower riparian states, engineer, private company, representative of state and central governments existing informal groups working on human rights. The dialogue will be helpful in consensus building and finding alternatives. However, a credible leadership on the part of the government is necessary to sustain the process.
(The views expressed in the write-up are personal and do not re?ect the official policy or position of the organization.)
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